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    10/13/2006

    组件商业模式

    我来大胆预测一下未来的商业模式,姑且称为组件商业模式。由于对企业各个部门的成本和利润的精益求精,一种可能的情况是在每个专项上追求规模经济。客户服务可以外包,IT可以外包,物流可以外包,采购可以外包,任何东西都可以外包。所以未来的商业可能是组件式的,投资者只要准备资金,购买各个部门的组件,聘请高层将它们组合起来,调试运行,商业机器就开始运转了。 将会有新的商业机会在这种模式中诞生,就是如何协调各个部门的运作。各个部门的状态,部门间的衔接将会标准化,接口的定义将是争夺的主战场。ERP将会更强大,跟踪所有的内部活动,就像人的神经系统,精细到每一个肌肉细胞。对于利润的分配,市场将会做出回答,因为进入瓶颈低的部门将会有更激烈的竞争,而价格将会相对偏低;反之进入瓶颈高的行业将会保持高利润。 有人要问了,那么公司和公司之间还有什么区别?其实只要看看你和你邻居的区别,再考虑一下你们的胃之间的区别,就可以有个类比了。

    Comments (8)

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    Picture of Anonymous
    Yifan wrote:
    交易成本本身并不禁止对服务和合约的细分,不过它确实是对于这种行为的合理性的一个量度。
    Oct. 25
    Picture of Anonymous
    atelier wrote:
    哈哈,这个想法70年前就有人提出来了,当年研究的是既然任何东商品和服务都可以交易,为什么不能每个人都开个作坊,而要通过公司这个组织来进行呢? 伦敦政经学院的Ronald Coase写了The Nature of the Firm,提出之所以个人最终被公司并购进行生产,原因在于交易成本Transaction Costs,这个理论后来让他的了诺贝尔经济学奖。你现在说到的接口标准,以及今后的技术授权,都是这个成本的体现,可能分工到一定程度,太专一的企业就很难消化这个费用,以至于出现并购,需要上下游统一的大公司来减少环节间的成本。
    Oct. 22
    拉普拉斯wrote:
    软件业已经开始用这种方式了。因为他们想最大程度的代码重用,且到达快速开发。和传统工业不同,软件业中的组件一旦被设计出来,大量的复制几乎不用成本。最大的问题在于,如何找到适合的组件,或者说在类似的组件中挑选,或许Web Service真有用武之地了,呵呵。
    Oct. 22
    Hiya,
    I read comment on google search about Ivan Yifan he is a friend of mine, but I have not been able to send him messages through his hotmail account, we had arranged to meet in October, whilst he was in Beijing.  But I have not heard from him.  I tried to sent some music but server told me that the account was too full, also has told me account is unavailable or unactive.  So obviously I am rather concerned about my friend.  Maybe you could let me know, thanks from Matthew
    Oct. 20
    mtempwrote:
    很有想法
    Oct. 17
    Ji QIwrote:
    有意思!如何解释M和A呢?因为不是所有行业都存在规模效应,不过对于制造业应该是准确的,尤其是接口,估计会越来越重要。
    Oct. 16
    太陽の西wrote:
    More than welcomed
    Oct. 14
    Picture of Anonymous
    Eurus wrote:
    Need to further discuss the stuff with u.
    Oct. 13

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